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January 21, 2007
I'm wrong.
Waaaayyy back 2 years ago, I said that Hillary wouldn't run. I was wrong...
This demands an accounting. Why did Hillary behave in ways I would not? First, and most obviously, I failed to account for the fact that Senators run all the time. In fact, I'd guess that somewhere between 60 and 75% of all presidential contenders are Senators. None of them ever win. Therefore, we cannot say that Senators are likely to learn the lesson that Senators don't win...
Each of them must therefore think "Well, John Kerry/John Edwards/John McCain/Joe Lieberman didn't win, but I'm different, I'm special. I've got qualities and experiences that will outweigh the fact that my voting record can be (mis) construed to be on the publicly unpopular side of hundreds of votes." In fact, it is necessary to have this sort of Hubris in order to be a Senator in the first place...
I'd now like to go on record as saying that Hillary won't make it past the primaries. Of course, my Predictions have been wrong before. So we ought not be too shocked to see Hillary Clinton be sworn in late January 2009...
Posted by Andrew at January 21, 2007 05:44 PM